BRISE will flourish in the future



Jorgen Randers : climatologist
Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten big emerging economies (Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, Iran, Thailand, Ukraine, Argentina, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia) had a total of 2.4 billion people in 2010 (half in India) and will peak by 2052 at well below 3 billion; collective GDP in the 14 countries will triple by 2052, with per capita GDP growing from $6K to $16K; emissions from fossil fuels will not plateau until the 2040s despite efficiency increases; the region is subject to potential climate disasters (e.g., inundation of SE Asian countries by melting glaciers in Tibet, drying out of the rain forest in Brazil, insects killing the boreal forest in Russia); in sum, the region will be “in lively development” over the next 40 years, but with widely varying quality in governance.


Randers, J. (2012) 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Report to the Club of Rome, White River Junction VT: Chelsea Green.


http://www.globalforesightbooks.org/Book-of-the-Month/jorgen-randers-2052-a-global-forecast-for-the-next-forty-years.html