Expected cost/benefits will keep individual loyal to incumbent, others will make him join the opposition.



Timur Kuran : Economist, political scientist
"The society may be on the verge of a massive explosion, therefore, with everyone continuing to believe -- and indeed its members continuing to claim - that it is quite stable…If the bandwagon beings rolling, it will catch everyone by surprise, including the very individuals whose actions put it in motion."


"The Inevitability of Future Revolutionary Surprises ," American Journal of Sociology, 100 : 1528-51. May 1995.


http://econ.duke.edu/uploads/assets/People/Kuran/Inevitability%20of%20surprises.pdf