US oil reserves will be depleted very rapidly



M. King Hubbert : engineer
"One man who clearly saw the end of the age of oil was M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil petroleum engineer. In 1956, Hubbert presented a far-reaching talk to the American Petroleum Institute, making a disturbing prediction that was universally derided by his colleagues at the time. He predicted that U.S. oil reserves were being depleted so rapidly that soon 50 percent of the oil would be taken out of the ground, triggering an irreversible era of decline that would set in between 1965 and 1971. He saw that the total amount of oil in the United States could be plotted as a bell-shaped curve, and that we were then near the top of that curve. From then on, things could only go downhill, he predicted. This meant that oil would become increasingly difficult to extract, hence the unthinkable would happen: the United States would begin importing oil.
His prediction seemed rash, even outlandish and irresponsible, since the United States was still pumping an enormous amount of oil from Texas and elsewhere in this country. But oil engineers are not laughing anymore. Hubbert’s prediction was right on the button. By 1970, U.S. oil production peaked at 10.2 million barrels a day and then fell. It has never recovered. Today, the United States imports 59 percent
of its oil. In fact, if you compare a graph of Hubbert’s estimates made decades ago with a graph of actual U.S. oil production through 2005, the two curves are almost identical."


"Physics of the Future"